The closest the Cubs have come to reaching the World Series for the first time in 70 years, and giving them their closest opportunity to win in 108 years, was in 2003. They appeared to be the Team of Destiny during 2003, finishing the regular season in 1st place of the NL Central with a record of 88-74. In the first round of the playoffs, the Cubs pushed the talented Atlanta Braves out in a decisive Game 5 performance by staff ace Kerry Wood. They faced the surprising Florida Marlins in the NLCS. The Cubs gave up Game 1, but stormed back to win three in a row. With a chance to seal it on the road, the Cubs couldn't overcome Josh Beckett who dominated Game 5 with a complete game shutout. That pushed the series back to Chicago for Game 6. Despite the last game, many believed the Cubs were poised to win Game 6 and send the Cubs to the World Series. It seemed like they were finally ready to end the suffering of their loyal fans. And for 7 innings in Game 6, it looked like the Cubs were heading for victory.
And then the world was introduced to Steve Bartman.
With the Cubs up 3-0 with 1 out in the top of the 8th inning, Luis Castillo of the Florida Marlins fouled a ball off to left field. Cubs left fielder Moises Alou tracked the ball to the side wall and leaped with just enough oomph to reach into the stands and make the out. But spectator and loyal Cubs fan Steve Bartman did what anyone would have done in that situation: he saw a foul ball coming towards him and wanted to collect his souvenir. Bartman didn't keep his eye on the field, so he didn't see Alou camp underneath it. The fan reached up and knocked the ball away from Alou negating a surefire out. The ball was declared foul, and Luis Castillo was given another opportunity.
What happened after the controversial foul ball was a complete collapse by the Chicago pitching staff and uncommonly simple mistakes by the defense allowing the Marlins to bat around and plant 8 runs on the board during the 8th inning. The Marlins would go on to win Game 6 and then again in Game 7, defeating the Cubs and sending their fans reeling after watching their team get to within five outs of reaching the World Series.
Though it was just one minor flicker in the grand scheme of things, Cubs fans believe that Chicago would have won the decisive sixth game and go on to defeat the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series to end the nearly century long drought. To Cubs fans, Steve Bartman reaching for a foul ball cost the Cubs the World Series.
What would have happened if that loyal fan had remained in his seat? How would the rest of the game have played out had he noticed Moises Alou reaching for the ball and allowed him to record the second out?
What if Steve Bartman didn't interfere with Moises Alou?
It might seem obvious to baseball fans, but the first question that needs to be asked is simple. Even if the fans gave him the room, would Alou have been able to make the catch? Many who watched the play live and have seen the replays assume it's a given that he makes the catch. But tracking a ball into foul territory, timing a leap, and reaching into the stands to snag a fast falling baseball is far from a can of corn.
Replays and screen caps seem to show the trajectory would indeed meet the webbing of Alou's glove. The only question would be if Alou held on long enough or if his his glove would hit any obstructions on the way back to the field that would jar the ball loose. Alou had 6 errors in 2003 making for a .971 fielding percentage, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. However best case scenario says yes, Moises Alou likely catches the ball for the second out of the inning if Steve Bartman didn't knock it away.
If not for Steve Bartman's gaffe, the most egregious mistake of the game would have been the questionable call by Dusty Baker to leave Mark Prior in the game as long as he did.
Prior had been a dominating force for the Cubs all year, finishing 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting. He was the heart and soul of the Cubs that year, and his bullpen was not as sharp as the Marlins'. It's not unusual to let a starting pitcher work himself deep into the game. But in a deciding game that would punch a ticket to the World Series, a fresh pitcher trumps a starter working his eighth inning. Mark Prior wasn't pulled until the score was tied at 3. Kyle Farnsworth entered the game inheriting two runners in scoring position, and the rest of the game unraveled from there. However, if Mark Prior was pulled before giving up the tying double to Derrek Lee, then Lee likely would face Cubs closer Joe Borowski for a two inning save.
| Mark Prior | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3 Runs of Support | 2.62 ERA | 1.082 WHIP | 5.65 K/BB | 1 HR 57 AB | .230 BAV | .660 OPS |
| 8th Inning (2003 season) | 5.06 ERA | 1.760 WHIP | 3.67 K/BB | 1 HR-40 AB | .262 BAV | .759 OPS |
| NLCS (2003) | 3.13 ERA | 1.326 WHIP | 2.25 K/BB | 0 HR | .222 BAV | .580 OPS |
| OPS allowed when... | within 2R | 1 Out | 2 Outs | RISP | 2 on, 1 out | 2 on, 2 out |
| .660 | .698 | .651 | .702 | .911 | 1.167 |
| Joe Borowski (2003) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In Save Situation | 2.48 ERA | 1.101 WHIP | 1.5 K/BB | .193 BA | 3 HR | .547 OPS |
| NLCS | 1.59 ERA | 1.412 WHIP | 0.3 K/BB | .192 BA | 0 HR | .530 OPS |
| OPS allowed when... | Within 2R | 1 Out | 2 Outs | 2 on, 1 out | 2 on, 2 out | RISP |
| .547 | .629 | .413 | .000 | .311 | .406 |
With the comparable stats, it's easy to second guess Dusty Baker's decision to stick with Prior. Had Borowski entered the game one batter earlier, the chances of getting out of the inning with the lead intact goes up substantially.
But the question isn't "What if Mark Prior was pulled early?" If Prior wasn't pulled with one out and two on, he certainly wouldn't be pulled if Alou collected the second out with one man on.
Apart from Bartman's interference and Prior remaining in the game, the biggest momentum killer of the inning was committed by Chicago shortstop Alex Gonzalez.
| Assists | Put Outs | Errors | Double Plays | Fielding % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | 422 | 193 | 10 | 95 | .984 |
Gonzalez's numbers defensively were between above average and excellent. The error was an anomaly for someone usually defensively sound. It appears Gonzalez was trying to start a double play but started the transfer from glove to throwing hand too early resulting in a bobble, an error, and another blown out. Had Moises Alou made the catch, the second out of the inning would have been recorded, and Gonzalez wouldn't have had to rush the throw in order to turn two.
There's no guarantee that Alex Gonzalez would have fielded it cleanly as Cabrera hit a hard chopper to short. The old adage says to never assume the double play, and for this purpose, an out itself can never be assumed in the first place. While it's debatable whether Gonzalez would have fielded Cabrera's hit cleanly or not, it's better to err on the side of history and say he would have bobbled it at any rate, with or without Bartman's interference two batters before.
As stated before, it's widely believed that without Steve Bartman, the Cubs would have won Game 6. In fact, entering the 8th inning, the Cubs had a 92% chance of winning the game and the NLCS. But even had he not interfered, even if Alou had made the second out, the Marlins still would have had 4 outs to go. The Marlins had the heart of the lineup coming up.
MARLINS vs. CUBS PITCHERS
| 2003 NLCS | vs. Mark Prior | vs. Kyle Farnsworth | vs. Joe Borowski | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrek Lee | .188 BA, .344 SLG 8 SO, 1 HR, 4 RBI |
11 PA, .273 BA .909 OPS, 1 HR, 3 RBI |
20 PA, .350 BA .900 OPS, 1 HR, 3 RBI |
7 PA, .333 BA .929 OPS |
| Mike Lowell | .200 BA, .500 SLG 4 SO, 2 HR, 3 RBI |
10 PA, .200 BA .400 OPS, 4 SO |
25 PA, .292 BA .612 OPS, 3 RBI, 6 SO |
10 PA, .222 BA .522 OPS |
| Jeff Conine | .458 BA, .708 SLG 1 HR, 3 RBI |
13 PA, .417 BA .962 OPS |
7 PA, .200 BA .486 OPS, 1 RBI |
10 PA, .400 BA 1.000 OPS |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 3/3, 2 RBI | N/A | 11 PA, .444 BA, .667 SLG | 2/2, 1 RBI |
Using a combination of expanded statistics and game history, an educated hypothesis can be created playing out the remainder of the game from the top of the 8th inning.
*Mike Mordecai pinch hits for relief pitcher Chad Fox, and flies out to left field for Out #1
*Juan Pierre rips a 2-2 pitch to left and slides into second base with a one out double.
*Luis Castillo, assuming Bartman backs off and Alou fields the ball cleanly, fouls out to left for Out #2
*Ivan Rodriguez rips an 0-2 slider into left for a single. Pierre scores from second. Marlins trail the Cubs, 3-1.
*Miguel Cabrera hits a high chopper to Alex Gonzalez. Even in this scenario with two outs, it's assumed that Gonzalez couldn't handle the bounce and bobbled the ball to allow Cabrera to reach base and Pudge to reach second.
*Derrek Lee steps up to the plate. In actual game history, Lee tied the game with a bases loaded double. Even if Alou recorded the second out of the inning, Prior's wheels would still be falling off. He would make the same approach to Lee, and Lee would still take the first pitch he saw into the gap in left-center for a double. The big difference, however, is in this simulation it's only one run scoring instead of two--Cabrera was a clumsy runner that would prevent him from making a scoring attempt all the way from first.
*Mike Lowell is next to the dish. Farnsworth intentionally walked Lowell in Game 6 likely to set up a double play. Given Lowell's moderate success against Farnsworth and Jeff Conine's struggles, it's likely that Lowell is walked again with first base open.
*With 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, Jeff Conine would face Kyle Farnsworth with the bases loaded in a 1 run game.
The numbers aren't at all unanimous one way or the other. However there is a clear majority of categories favoring Farnsworth against Conine, particularly seeing Conine popped out in Game 6 to begin with (the second out of the inning which yielded the go-ahead run). That would make Out #3, and the Cubs would escape with a thin lead.
*Even playing with a narrow lead, there's no reason to believe the bottom of the 8th would play out any differently than the 1-2-3 inning that occurred. At the end of 8, it would be 3-2 Cubs.
*In the 9th, the Cubs would go with their closer Joe Borowski to face Alex S. Gonzalez (the Marlins' shortstop, not the Cubs'), a pinch hitter (likely Todd Hollandsworth), and Juan Pierre. Borowski had blown 4 saves in 37 opportunities during the 2003 season. But his numbers during the ninth inning were nothing short of dominating, particularly when he got down to two outs.
*Alex S. Gonzalez was a defensive specialist and hit barely over .200 during the season. Borowski would get him to ground out for Out #1.
*Todd Hollandsworth is a serviceable pinch hitter, but there's no extraordinary reason to believe he does anything but pop out for Out #2.
*Down to their last out, Juan Pierre comes up to the plate. Normally, a .300 hitter with over 200 hits and a league leader in stolen bases would be given a decent chance of extending the game. But Borowski only allowed an aenemic .413 OPS when there were 2 outs in the inning. With everything on the line, Pierre would ground out for Out #3.
The game would end 3-2, Cubs.
So yes, Cubs fans, you have been verified. Had Steve Bartman not interfered with Moises Alou in the 8th inning of Game 6 of the NLCS, the Chicago Cubs likely would have gone to the World Series. All the speculation and presumptions made in blind rage may have some sense of truth to them given the statistical scenario.
But would it have ended there? Steve Bartman negated an NL pennant, but did he really prevent the Cubs from winning the World Series as well?
The New York Yankees were on an emotional high of their own after winning a long and arduous pennant. It's important to keep in mind that the Yankees ended up losing the World Series to the Florida Marlins, meaning had the Cubs replaced them in the Series then they'd potentially already have the upper hand.
| BA/OBP/SLG%/OPS | HR / Runs | OPS + | Total Bases | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs offense 2003 regular season |
.259/.323/.416/.739 | 172/724 | 91 | 2,297 |
| Yankees offense 2003 regular season |
.271/.356/.453/.810 | 230/845 | 114 | 2,540 |
| ERA (starters) | ERA (bullpen) | WHIP | Strikeouts | |
| Cubs pitching 2003 regular season |
3.58 | 3.68 | 1.319 | 1,404 |
| Yankees pitching 2003 regular season |
4.20 | 3.67 | 1.291 | 1,119 |
| BA/OBP/SLG%/OPS | Runs | ERA | WHIP | |
| Cubs 2003 NLCS | .258/.324/.484/.808 | 42 | 4.77 | 1.455 |
| Yankees 2003 World Series | .261/.338/.406/.743 | 21 | 2.13 | 1.109 |
Unfortunately the numbers aren't conclusive enough to define a clear cut winner. The Yankees had a better offense, a slightly better bullpen, the Cubs had a superior starting rotation, and their respective final series saw a flip in the script with the Yankees pitching overshadowing the Cubs, and Cubs' bats out dueling the Yankees'. The stats just aren't decisive enough to pick a winner.
Steve Bartman may have been a scapegoat for the demise of the Chicago Cubs in 2003. But his action goes to prove the butterfly effect in its essence. One fan reaches for a souvenir and effectively changed the course of baseball history.
(Sources:
Stats and research: www.baseball-reference.com
Photos: mlb.com, espn.com, chicagotribune.com, gettyimages.com
Videos: YouTube - MLB channel)
