The honor of the "Five Tool Player" had been around long before, but no one in the history of baseball seems to characterize the depth of the title like Griffey. He could hit for average
He could hit for power
His defensive prowess was the stuff of legend.
His arm was like a canon.
And his speed on the basepaths was impressive.
Ken Griffey Jr. was a human highlight reel and, simply put, one of the best center fielders to ever play the game in 147 years. This weekend, Ken Griffey Jr. will be enshrined into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown to put a cap onto his illustrious career. The voting commissioned Baseball Writers of America voted him in with the highest percentage ever at 99.3% of votes; only 3 ballots out of 440 left his name off the list.
And yet, as amazing as his legacy is, it's daft to imagine how much greater it could have been. There is a watershed moment that divides Ken Griffey Jr.'s illustrious career. On February 10, 2000, the Seattle Mariners did the unthinkable. They traded Ken Griffey Jr. It wasn't unwarranted. Griffey had just finished his 10th year in the league, and vented his frustration to management about the disappointing previous seasons. Pat Gillick was faced with a conundrum. Trade the face of the franchise and get something in return, or watch him walk away leaving the M's empty handed.
Ken Griffey Jr. was traded to his hometown Cincinnati Reds in exchange for centerfielder Mike Cameron, starting pitcher Brett Tomko, and two minor league prospects. The rest is written in the annals of Major League Baseball history.
But what if Griffey didn't force his way out of Seattle? What if, discontent though he was, Griffey knuckled under and took the disappointments in stride? What if Pat Gillick refused to grant Griffey his trade?
What if Ken Griffey Jr. never left the Seattle Mariners?
The most fundamentally basic way to measure one player's impact is to examine the direct standings.
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 85-77 | 66-96 | 78-84 | 69-93 | 76-86 | 73-89 | 80-82 | 72-90 |
| Seattle Mariners | 91-71 | 116-41 | 93-69 | 93-69 | 63-99 | 69-93 | 78-84 | 88-74 |
The difference in records are a sharp contrast, though in a different direction than anticipated. In Griffey's tenure with the Reds, the Mariners ended the regular season with a better record 5 out of 8 years. The Mariners made the playoffs twice in that span; the Reds did not make any playoff appearance with Griffey on their roster. The year after Griffey was traded, the Mariners tied the Major League record for wins in a season (114); the Reds finished with a record above .500 just once out of 8 seasons. At first look, it would appear that the Seattle Mariners were better off trading Griffey than holding onto him. But the end result hardly tells the entire story.
Ken Griffey Jr. was traded for Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko, and two prospects (neither of who stepped foot on Safeco Field). If Griffey had stayed in Seattle, then Cameron and Tomko stay in Cincinnati.
| Avg. per 162 games | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. (00-07) | .273 BAV | 70 XBH | 38 HR | 106 RBI | 93 Runs | 80 BB | 117 SO |
| Mike Cameron (00-04) | .256 BAV | 61 XBH | 24 HR | 92 RBI | 94 Runs | 79 BB | 116 SO |
| Brett Tomko (00-01) | 13-8 W/L | 4.87 ERA | 101 K | 68 BB | 1.49 WHIP | 26 HRA |
Cameron had a successful four year stint with the Seattle Mariners, and Brett Tomko was a serviceable arm in the middle of the rotation. But as well as they played, it's hard to believe the Reds would be better off with them over Griffey. With Griffey staying in Seattle, Cincinnati is still out a power bat they desperately needed to add to the lineup. But they also never would have spent $112 million to keep Griffey in red. The Reds would then hit the market for a scoring specialist. Possible targets may have included David Segui, Butch Huskey, or re-signing Greg Vaughn. But none of them could do what Griffey did. And Cincinnati isn't known for pulling in big names in free agency. The Cincinnati Reds were never close to the playoffs during Griffey's tenure, but they'd be even further away if they filled his slot with Segui or Huskey. If Griffey stayed in Seattle, Cincinnati would have been cellar dwellers.
To understand how Griffey's presence would affect the Mariners' lineup, his numbers need to be compared to Seattle's starting centerfielders during his tenure with the Reds.
| AVG/OBP/SLG%, HR/RBI/R | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. | .271/.387/.556, 40/118/100 | .286/.365/.533, 22/65/57 | .264/.358/.426*, 8/23/17 | .247/.370/.566, 13/26/34* | .253/.351/.513, 20/60/49* | .301/.369/.576, 35/92/85 | .252/.316/.486, 27/72/62 | .277/.372/.496, 30/93/78 |
| Seattle Mariners CF | .267/.365/.438, 19/78/96-MC | .267/.353/.480, 25/110/95-MC | .239/.340/.442, 25/80/84-MC | .253/.344/.431, 18/76/74-MC | .286/.346/.427, 14/81/84-RW | .275/.342/.391, 6/37/46-RW | .247/.320/.299, 1/15/36-WB | .351/.396/.431, 6/68/111-IS |
(MC = Mike Cameron, RW = Randy Winn, WB = Willie Bloomquist, IS = Ichiro Suzuki)
Griffey's numbers his first year in Cincinnati were exactly what you'd expect: phenomenal. But by 2001, injuries began to hamper his career. Between 2001 and 2004, he missed a total of 330 games. His overall stats look meek in comparison to Mike Cameron who stayed predominantly healthy. 2001 was a breakout year for Cameron, driving more runs in and hitting more homeruns during the Mariners historic year. By 2005, however, Mike Cameron had moved on in free agency, and Ken Griffey Jr. got back into his groove. Griffey's renaissance found him outpacing the Seattle centerfielders by a wide margin, particularly in 2006 when Willie Bloomquist led a beleaguered platoon unit in center. While there's no guarantee that Griffey remains perfectly healthy in Seattle had he stayed, his rebirth in 2005 would have been helpful in delaying the sudden decline of Seattle, possibly even pushing the Mariners into a position to make the playoffs in 2007.
Of course, one of the direct results of the face of the franchise leaving was creating a spot for the next superstar to come through. Griffey's exile meant there was a spot on the roster and a good chunk of change to spend on the latest Japanese import: Ichiro Suzuki.
Had Griffey stayed in Seattle, the Mariners likely wouldn't have bid on Ichiro, or at very least wouldn't post enough to win the bid. At least four teams posted a bid to the Orix Blue Wave in the Japanese League. With Griffey still patrolling center, there's no panic for them to make sure they won Ichiro's Major League rights.
The other teams that bid on the prolific lead off man were the Anaheim Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Mets.
When Ichiro came into the league, the outfield in Anaheim was booked. Garret Anderson was the main cog of the offense, so his job was likely safe. Darrin Erstad was a candidate solely since he was the leadoff man for the Angels at the time, a slot Ichiro perfected. But Erstad was still playing at a high level, and his offensive skills were interchangeable making him valuable as a #2 hitter or to jump start the lower part of the lineup. The odd man out likely would have longtime Angel right fielder Tim Salmon. Salmon had an illustrious career with Anaheim, but he hit the decline of his career by 2000. He still had value as a power hitter who could still play an average right field, and he would be the most tradeable outfielder they had. Ichiro's presence also would have affected the free agents that came to Anaheim. It's likely that Vladamir Guerrero isn't offered the mammoth contract he received from Anaheim had Ichiro been apart of the team. Torii Hunter also may have found a different home.
The Dodgers of the 2000's would have certainly benefitted from Ichiro's presence. Unfortunately for them, they played at the same time that Barry Bonds and the Giants dominated the NL West. Ichiro is good, but he alone can't help a team consistently double digit games behind the division leader. The Dodgers did see success in 2008 and 2009 reaching the NLCS in both years. But both years saw them facing the Philadelphia Phillies, one of the most dominant, well built National League teams since the Big Red Machine of the 80's. Ichiro in the lineup may have seen them gain a game or two in each of the series, but there was no denying the Phillies during their brief dominating years. Ichiro on the Dodgers would have been exciting, but would not have changed much of their history.
If Ken Griffey Jr. remained in Seattle, Ichiro would have changed the course of three other teams' history. In two cases, Ichiro may be wearing a World Series ring.
The Seattle Mariners came close to history in 2001. They won 114 games during the regular season tying the modern record and falling just three games short of reaching the World Series. Would Griffey's presence in the lineup have pushed them over the hump?
| 2001 Statistics | GP | AVG | OBP | SLG% | OPS | HR | RBI | R | SB | XBH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 111 | .286 | .365 | .533 | .898 | 22 | 65 | 57 | 2 | 44 |
| Mike Cameron | 150 | .267 | .353 | .480 | .832 | 25 | 110 | 99 | 34 | 60 |
Not to be overlooked, Mike Cameron had a phenomenal season with the Mariners during their historic season. But the slight decrease in Griffey's power numbers had more to do with missing 50 games than Cameron playing better. Griffey's OPS was moderately higher.
Beyond the numbers, Griffey brought an aura and a reputation. He made pitchers change their game every time he stepped up to the plate. He made others around him better. For how good Cameron was, he did not inspire this brand of influence. Whether or not Griffey would have been enough to make history is debatable especially since it's unclear if staying in Seattle would have avoided or delayed his recurring injuries. But it has to be believed that somewhere at some point during the 162 games played during the season that Ken Griffey would have changed the point of the game where Mike Cameron had not. If Ken Griffey stayed in Seattle, you would see the Mariners alone at the top of the record books as the only team to reach 115 wins.
Records and history are all well and good. But if you ask anyone who's ever played the game, they'll tell you the same thing: it's all about winning the World Series. In each of the first two years after Griffey's exit, the Seattle Mariners reached the ALCS against the New York Yankees. In 2000, they were defeated 4 games to 2. In 2001, they were defeated 4 games to 1. If Ken Griffey had been penciled into the lineup instead of Mike Cameron, history may have changed drastically.
| Playoffs | GP | AVG | SLG% | HR | RBI | R | XBH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. (career postseason) | 18 | .289 | .580 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
| Mike Cameron (2000, 2001 ALDS/ALCS) | 16 | .238 | .360 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Ken Griffey's career playoff numbers are significantly greater than Mike Cameron's during the 2000 and 2001 playoffs. Also up for consideration are Griffey's numbers against the Yankees' star pitching at the time.
| Griffey vs. Yankee pitching | PA | AVG. | OBP. | SLG% | HR | RBI | XBH | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Andy Pettitte | 70 | .355 | .414 | .548 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| vs. Roger Clemens | 102 | .311 | .392 | .589 | 6 | 16 | 13 | 17 |
| vs. Mike Mussina | 59 | .143 | .186 | .321 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| vs. Orlando Hernandez | 16 | .308 | .438 | .538 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| vs. Mariano Rivera | 18 | .308 | .500 | .538 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
His playoff numbers combined with his career numbers against Yankee pitching clearly enhance the odds in favor of the Mariners. These are no small samples either--Griffey faced Roger Clemens more than any other pitcher in his career. The only pitcher who consistently beat Griffey is Mike Mussina. Had he played with the Mariners in these series, it's not unrealistic to think the Mariners could have made it to the Fall Classic one of these years, most likely in 2000 where they would go on to face the New York Mets (and possibly Ichiro Suzuki, in an ironic twist).
Griffey's contract with the Mariners expired after the 2000 season. Had he stayed and brought the Mariners into the World Series--maybe even if he had pushed the Yankees into a 7 game ALCS--it's easy to think that the disappointment and frustration would have faded. The chances of Griffey walking away after getting close (possibly even winning a championship) drop dramatically. The Mariners offered Griffey a contract extension before his imminent trade that guaranteed Griffey more money than he received from Cincinnati. Winning a pennant, a World Series, or even getting within a game of either would have been enough for Griffey to sign on the dotted line and remain in Seattle for the duration of his career.
In conclusion... If Ken Griffey Jr. stayed in Seattle:
+The Seattle Mariners would have taken a pennant (or two) away from the New York Yankees, halving the potency of the Bronx Dynasty of the late 90's/early 00's.
+The 2001 Seattle Mariners would have set the modern record for most wins in a regular season with at least 115 wins.
+Ichiro Suzuki would have worn Angel red, Met orange, or Dodger blue.
++The Angels win a second World Series title against the Houston Astros in 2005 =OR=
++The Mets beat the Yankees in the Battle of New York in 2000 =OR=
++The Dodgers would be more exciting, but still never closer to a title.
+Cincinnati would still be searching for their power hitting outfielder (Tim Salmon or Vladamir Guerrero could be available)
+The legacy of Ken Griffey Jr. enhances by playing his entire career in Seattle and brings the team their only championship thus far (possibly against Ichiro Suzuki's Mets)
+Griffey would win over those 3 stubborn Hall of Fame voters to become the first unanimous selection into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Of course, this is all conjecture and optimism that the statistics and research would play out in a best case scenario. What really would have happened if Ken Griffey Jr. stayed in Seattle?
I guess we'll never know.
(Sources:
Stats and research: www.baseball-reference.com
Photos: mlb.com, seattletimes.com, espn.com, Cincinnati.com, gettyimages.com
Videos: MLB Channel - YouTube)
