Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Two Weeks to Panic

Though the NFL regular season is 17 weeks long, a lot can be told by the end of Week 2. The conjecture of the preseason can either verify a team's standing or completely obliterate it. At least that's how fans see it. Looking at a 2-0 next to a team's standings is enough to give fans Super Bowl dreams, while staring at 0-2 will make some fans dread the final 15 weeks (And all fans of 1-1 teams are left in a purgatory of perplexing emotions).





Not every team that has been perfect for two weeks is bound for the promised land. Therefore, it's time to decide who is a Contender and who is a Pretender.



Contenders



New England Patriots




= Ho hum, another year, another 2-0 start for the Patriots. There hasn't been a season without labeling the Pats as serious title contenders for a long, long time, and until they get unseated by a worthy adversary in the AFC East hunt, it's not likely to happen again. This year has been extra challenging for the Pats however who have had to do it without their Golden Boy, Tom Brady. The problem for most people who want to see the Pats fail is that Brady's replacement, Jimmy Garoppolo, has done an outstanding job in his place. In Week 1, the Pats were able to shock the world by undoing the heavily favored Cardinals, and they were able to stave off a Miami comeback in Week 2. Garoppolo is injured now, so they'll have to rely on rookie Jacoby Brissett until the Golden Boy returns from his suspension. But with the defense clicking, a soft schedule, and playing in the most lopsided division in football, my money is on the Patriots contending well into the playoffs.




Pittsburgh Steelers




= Simply put, the Steelers are built for contention this year. They aren't showing any signs of weakness early on this year. Big Ben is still playing at an elite level, and a lot of that can be chalked up to the arrival of Antonio Brown as the best receiver in the NFL. The running attack is also helping Roethlisberger air the ball out, and that's without Leveon Bell in the backfield. They blew out the Redskins in Week 1, and played a hardnosed well fought game against the Bengals in Week 2. The sign of a championship team is winning games they're supposed to, and the Steelers show that in the first two weeks. Expect to watch them play in January.




Houston Texans




= The Texans are on the verge of being the next defensive juggernaut since the Urlacher-led Chicago Bears. In the first two weeks, they've allowed just 26 points while hitting the QB's early and often. JJ Watt is playing at a high level while supposedly not even at 100% yet. Not to be outdone, Jadeveon Clowney is finally living up to his hype. The offense hasn't been perfect, namely Brock Osweiler hasn't been consistent. However, if the offense does just enough, the defense will keep them in every game they play.




New York Giants




= The Giants have won two games by a combined total of 4 points. They've turned the end of the game into real nail biters, just as they had last season. The big difference however is that they're on the opposite end of the spectrum, eeking out the victories this season instead of suffering heart breaking losses. Their highly priced defense has already paid dividends stopping Dallas on a potential game winning drive in Week 1 and punishing Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 2. Eli is playing smart football with only 1 turnover so far, and new coach Ben McAdoo appears to have righted the ship (for now). With Tony Romo off the field and the rest of the division up for grabs, this is now officially the Giants' division to lose.






Pretenders






Baltimore Ravens



= The Ravens weren't a team expected to compete this season what with Joe Flacco coming back from an injury, a substantial lack of offensive weapons, and a malleable defense. However, here they stand at 2-0. Look at the sum of the wins, and it'll tell a different story. The team won a flat out ugly game against the Bills mustering up a mere 13 points. And while coming back from 20 to win in the 4th quarter is impressive, allowing a team like the Cleveland Browns to run up the score like that to begin with is appalling. Better teams won't let the Ravens crawl back like that. Their schedule is favorable, and it'll do well in either advancing their surprising start or exposing them as pretenders.




Denver Broncos




= It's hard to describe just how the Broncos have won their two games, in particular just how effectively they've done it as well. Week 1 saw a remarkable comeback to defeat the Panthers. In Week 2, they thoroughly embarrassed the Colts. Trevor Siemian has done better than expected, but still not exactly brilliantly. CJ Anderson has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence, and the defense is still doing well. But their still average over 20 points allowed, and they've had a number of calls and bounces go their way. They may be riding some Super Bowl magic from last year, but this team just doesn't have the talent to go as far this season. It'll catch up to them by Week 3 vs. the Bengals.




Philadelphia Eagles




= Considering Philadelphia was predicted to have between 3 and 6 wins this season, it's a little surprising to see them undefeated even after two weeks. Carson Wentz has played amazingly given the position he was put in--thrust into the starting position days before preseason set to be the team savior in his rookie year. The team has looked good, but their magical 2-0 start can be explained. Week 1 vs. Cleveland. Week 2 vs. Chicago. The Eagles faced two of the worst teams in the NFL back to back. It's not so shocking to imagine them 0-2 when considering the opponents. The real test begins for the Eagles in Week 3 when they square off against the Steelers (another 2-0 team).





Minnesota Vikings



= They deserve a lot of respect for their performance Sunday Night against the Packers. And the thorough victory they planted on the Titans in Week 1 is also impressive. But the injury to Adrian Peterson will hamper an already beleaguered offensive unit. Sam Bradford can only do so much, even if Stephon Diggs is having a breakout season. The defense will be their, but the offense can't score points. The Vikes have enough talent to hover around .500 by season's end, but too many crucial injuries will keep them from contending.






Whether contending or pretending, teams love to sit at 2-0 to begin the season. It's better than the alternative. 0-2 is an ugly eyesore in the standings. However, just like being perfect after two weeks, being winless after just two weeks isn't indicative of how the rest of the season is going to go. Which team's winless ways are Reality and which are Anomalies?




Reality





Buffalo Bills



= This was supposed to be the year they leapt ahead of the pack and strived for a playoff push. But as far as the season looks, this is another step back. The Bills looked positively impotent in Week 1 against the Ravens, and took a crushing loss to the Jets in Week 2. They canned Greg Roman after the loss, but it was hardly just the offense that needs help. When Rex Ryan climbed about the good ship Buffalo, it was expected he would build an already prime defense into one of the best in the NFL. He's done the opposite, transforming it into a liability. And with big bad Arizona coming to town, the Bills' losing ways don't look like they'll be ending any time soon.





Miami Dolphins



= Second verse, same as the first. Adam Gase is the new coach, but the song remains the same. More defensive inconsistencies, more Ryan Tannehill bumbling, more game-foiling dysfunction. The Dolphins suffered an ugly loss to Seattle in Week 1 and failed when it mattered the most on a comeback against the Patriots in Week 2. There's little hope to believe they can right the ship. Is it possible the Fins should look to end the Ryan Tannehill era and move on to a more reliable, more clutch quarterback? They'll have 15 gut wrenching weeks left to decide.





Chicago Bears



=The Bears were a lowly team entering the season. Without Jay Cutler they've turned into a regular doormat. They've been uninspired and unmotivated against the Texans and Eagles in the first two weeks. Teams will look forward to seeing Chicago come up on their schedule. The running game is non-existent. Alshon Jeffery has disappeared. And the defense is a far cry from the '85 champions' version. John Fox is a great coach, but even he can't save this dumpster fire.





Cleveland Browns



=They're the Cleveland Browns. What did you expect?








Anomalies




Jacksonville Jaguars




=It seems strange to have expectations of the Jaguars after watching them lose so much during the last decade. However, they have a team capable of climbing out of the cellar this season. That's exactly where they are after two weeks. They did get shellacked by the Chargers in Week 2. But in Week 1, they kept pace with the Packers and were a slew of terrible calls away from pulling the upset. Blake Bortles hasn't put up the stats he was predicted to, but he's still playing smart and growing as a QB. The Jags will snap out of it and put some wins in the left column.





Indianapolis Colts



=The Colts have a litany of problems at the moment. Their defense is cracking under the least pressure, allowing over 30 points in each of their first two weeks to the Lions and Broncos--teams that don't exactly have high powered offenses, at that. Andrew Luck returns from injury last season only to find himself flattened every time he drops back thanks in large part to a porous offensive line. Yet for all their problems, it'll only take a slight adjustment for everything else to fall into place. A tighter defense will mean less panic for the offense. The need to rush a pass will mean more run creation, easing the load off the O-line. It also leaves Luck with a second or two more to find an open man. Don't expect the Colts to stay down for very long.






Washington Redskins



=This may look familiar. We've seen the Redskins choke away a year of promise before. Especially after a playoff year, it's maddening to watch them self destruct as they had in Week 1 against the Steelers and Week 2 vs. Dallas. They still may be looking at another wasted year at 0-2. But one thing alone is positive for their revival. They play in the NFC East. There is no clear cut favorite to win the division. No elite team that's going to run away with it by Thanksgiving. The division could very well be won with a 9-7 record, or even 8-8 (shudder to think). The Skins have a talented roster, and if they crack off a series of wins, they'll be right back in the thick of the hunt.




New Orleans Saints




=The Saints have two losses by a combined 4 points. That's gotta hurt. But while the Saints have had problems on both sides of the ball--defensively allowing the Raiders to storm back for the win in Week 1, and offensively not being able to capitalize on the Giants' turnovers in Week 2--they still have a talented team ready to compete in the NFC South. There's a certain amount of luck that exists in a football game, and the Saints just happen to be victims of bad luck two weeks straight. Bad breaks can't last all season, and the Saints will start pulling out decisive victories, starting Week 3 vs. Atlanta.







Sometimes, it's just easier to be 1-1 at the end of Week 2. Expectations diminish and panic is staved off... at least until next week. So count yourself lucky, San Francisco 49ers!

(Pictures: Bleacher Report, Raiders.com, Sports Logos, USA Today)

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

A Glimpse Into the Future: The 2016 NFL Season Prognostication

The 2016 NFL season kicks off this Thursday when the Denver Broncos square off in Super Bowl rematch with the Carolina Panthers.

It's the most wonderful time of the year! (with all due respect to Andy Williams and his yuletide classic)

A lot is going to happen between now and Week 17. And following in the prognostication field that has made all sports experts look more like sports idiots, here's a look at the season ahead that will certainly look foolish by the end of the season.

STANDINGS

NFC East




10-6






9-7




5-11





4-12




*The NFC East picture is wide open since the recurring injuries of Tony Romo. Dallas still has the best O-line in the league, and Dak Prescott looked impressive in preseason. If he and Ezekiel Elliott out of the backfield can turn some heads, Dallas may still have a shot at winning.

*But with the door open, this is a chance Eli and Odell to lead Big Blue back into the playoffs. It's now officially their division to lose.

*Last season's NFC East champion, the Redskins, can't repeat that glory, not even if Josh Norman can play the game as well as he runs his mouth.

*New coach, new QB, but same old story for the Eagles. They'll be out by Thanksgiving.


NFC North



13-3





5-11





5-11





5-11




*This is the most lopsided division in the league this season. Aaron Rodgers is still in his prime, and he gets his favorite target back when Jordy Nelson steps onto the field. Defensively, they're miles ahead of everyone else in the division. The Packers will lock up the north by the beginning of December.

*Minnesota was a playoff team last season, albeit not a very good one. They have a strong defensive unit that will keep them in games, plus Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league. But the loss of Teddy Bridgewater will set them back in a big way that not even newly acquired Sam Bradford can come close to repairing.

*The Lions replaced departed Calvin Johnson with Marvin Jones--not an even trade.

*The Bears continue to remain a husk of their former glory.


NFC South



11-5





9-7





8-8





7-9




*The Panthers won't dominate the way they did last season, but they still have enough to be kings of the south. The division is slowly improving, however, and the Panthers window may be shutting.

*Their biggest threat remains to be Atlanta who started off hot last season only to cool off in a hurry. Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons at his disposal, and this is the year he needs to separate himself from the good quarterbacks into a great quarterback.

*This may very well be the final high intensity season for Drew Brees. His age only suits to put him on the decline. And as he goes, so do the Saints.

*The Bucs are still a year away from being serious contenders. However, they will turn heads this season with some quality victories led by Jameis Winston.


NFC West



11-5






10-6




7-9





3-13




*This may be the tightest race in the NFC this season. The Cardinals have the defense and the right chemistry to make a lot of noise in the division. But the clock is ticking on Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. Palmer is one bad hit away from another season ending (possibly career ending) injury, and Fitz has lost a step in his old age. However, budding back David Johnson will help run the offense.

*Just as Thomas Rawls will for Seattle. Beast Mode may be gone, but the Seahawks can still pound the rock with Rawls and Michaels chewing up yardage. Russell Wilson is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league, and he was THIS close to leading a huge comeback against the Panthers in the playoffs last season.

*Sorry, Jeff Fisher, even in LA, the Rams are stuck in 7-9 limbo.

*As if the controversy didn't say it loud and clear, the 49ers are the trainwreck of the league. Chip Kelly has a lot to do to bring the 9ers back to respectability let alone the playoffs.



First Round Byes: Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks
Wild Cards: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons



AFC East



11-5





9-7





5-11





5-11




*Love them or hate them, the AFC East continues to belong to the New England Patriots until they're proven wrong. That's not going to happen this season, not even with Tom Brady sitting out the first four games. The Pats benefit from a soft schedule, and a rested Brady will come out of the gate hungry.

*Their biggest threat is their rival from New York. The Jets have improved from last season thanks to the addition of Matt Forte shoring up the backfield. Todd Bowles has established his style of play, and that should get the team to play with a consistent strength on both sides of the ball.

*Miami is still a wreck, and until they get Ryan Tannehill private lessons with Peyton Manning, he's going to flounder.

*Let it never be said that the Buffalo Bills lack confidence. Rex Ryan makes sure his team is fired up to hit the field every Sunday. The problem is that while a confident team is important, so is a talented team. The Bills are only the former.


AFC North



12-4





8-8





7-9





6-10




*The Steelers are beginning to look like a Super Bowl caliber team once again thanks in large part to a high scoring offensive unit. Big Ben is coming off his two best seasons statistically and doesn't look to be slowing down any time soon. So long as his teammates can avoid being suspended, Pittsburgh will look to make a huge statement in the AFC this season.

*This may be the swan song for Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati, and it'll end without a single playoff victory. The Bengals have peaked and are due to regress back into the Bungles of old. By mid season, Andy Dalton will be replaced by AJ McCarron, whether by injury or ineffective play.

*With Baltimore, it's all going to depend on how Joe Flacco returns from his season ending injury last season. He's a smart QB without a lot to work with, and the defense is coming along. They languish in mediocrity this season, but the future is looking up.

*Make no mistake, the Cleveland Browns will have another losing season. But they are making strides to end their losing ways. RG3 has the most raw talent they've had under center since (consults the infamous jersey) Derek Anderson. Nowhere near the playoffs, but a 6 win season might get some people in Cleveland excited about football even when the basketball season begins.


AFC South



11-5





11-5





8-8






6-10



*The South has the makings to become the most versatile division in the league. Houston is hoping Brock Osweiler will be the quarterback they've been hoping for ever since they came in the league. They are literally one piece away from being a true contender. They possess one of the best defensive units in the game. If the offense can score points, this will be a good year in Houston.

*The Colts are looking to get back to their winning ways. Andrew Luck returns from a lacerated kidney that caused him to miss significant time last season. The Colts have the weapons in TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and veteran Frank Gore in the backfield. A good year from Luck sees the Colts fighting for the AFC South crown.

*The Jaguars are no longer the laughing stock of the league, and all praise can be sent directly to Blake Bortles. He's the best QB in east Florida since Mark Brunell. They aren't ready to compete without tying together their secondary. But an even .500 record will give them the respect they've lacked the last decade.

*The Titans have made some vast improvements to ensure that Marcus Mariota has a great sophomore season. Unfortunately, they haven't done enough. The Titans will have their moments, but ultimately wind up in the cellar.


AFC West



10-6





10-6





8-8





6-10




*This is the most wide open division in the league this season. Peyton is out in Denver, and the Super Bowl champions watched some pieces break apart. Von Miller and the defense keeps the team in every game they play, but the offense is going to struggle scoring points.

*The division will be a race won by the Kansas City Chiefs. They're a veteran team that's gaining more confidence every year that Andy Reid is there. It won't be a bust out season like 2013, but the 2016 team may even be more athletic and built for the long haul.

*There's always one team that overachieves and comes out of nowhere to shock the league. This season, it's going to be the Oakland Raiders. Derek Carr is quietly putting together a stellar career. He's grown and improved each year in the league. Amari Cooper is primed to be one of the greatest wideouts in the game today. And Khalil Mack anchors an underrated defensive squad. The Raiders aren't a laughing stock anymore; they're a playoff competitor.

*The Philip Rivers era appears to be stuck in neutral in San Diego. Funny thing is that it has nothing to with Rivers. He still puts up numbers and puts the Chargers in a position to win. But the front office consistently makes headlines for all the wrong reasons, the most recent being the Joey Bosa contract conflict. This is a team in disarray, and one has to wonder if the Chargers are thinking about trading Rivers in the offseason and starting out 2017 fresh.


First Round Byes: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots
Wild Cards: Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders


Most Valuable Player: Antonio Brown - Pittsburgh



Bold prediction, but the numbers don't lie. Brown has been far and away the best wide receiver in the league that last couple seasons. This season doesn't look like he will slow down. Each of the last 3 seasons, he has caught at least 110 balls and racked up at least 1,500 yards each (the pinnacle being last season when he notched over 1,800). Tack on top of that an average of over 10 TD's per season, and it's easy to see why Brown is the best receiver in the game today. The fact that he helps lead the Steelers to a #1 seed will only help his case. It's not often a wide receiver gets consideration for MVP; many times, a wide receiver's stats are an extension of the quarterback's skills. However, Brown plays consistently at an astronomically high level that it's the other way around, and Ben Roethlisberger's stats are an extension of his. Maybe this is just insane thinking, but if Antonio Brown continues his pace from the previous seasons, he should at least garner some votes from it.

Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas



No one else from this year's draft looks as game ready as Elliott does. He was immediately named the starter, even over veteran Darren McFadden. He performed well during preseason. And with the best offensive line in the game, Elliott is primed to have a monster rookie season. With Tony Romo injured, Ezekiel Elliott will keep Dallas in the hunt.


Coach of the Year: Jack Del Rio - Oakland


In three years, Del Rio would have transformed the Raiders from a decade long joke to playoff contenders. One of the head coach's main responsibilities is to keep the team motivated. And that's an area where Del Rio shines. Resurrecting a historic team back to respectability is more than enough credit to achieve this honor.


First Coach Fired: Mike McCoy - San Diego


McCoy was given keys to the Porshe and drove it like a Chevy Nova. Not long ago, the Chargers were the most feared team in the AFC West. Now they're a shell of their former dominance, and not even Philip Rivers plays with much emotion. The hammer has to come down from their slide into mediocrity, and it's going to fall on McCoy.


First Quarterback Benched: Case Keenum - Los Angeles



The Rams bring a quarterback carousel with them to LA. They moved heaven and earth to draft Jared Goff #1 overall, and he's a demeaning third on the QB depth chart. That may change, because Case Keenum doesn't exactly inspire much confidence to hold onto the starting job for very long. Two consecutive losses to open the season could see Keenum back on the bench, and Jared Goff making his debut.


PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD ROUND:

Carolina Panthers - 20
Atlanta Falcons - 14

*Matt Ryan's playoff resume is hardly impressive, and going up against a strong Carolina defense does little to help it.


New York Giants - 17
Arizona Cardinals - 31

*The Giants get back in the playoffs for the first time in five years. But they run into a buzzsaw when they match up against the Cardinals. The Giants secondary is torched for 400 yards, and they just don't keep up.


Houston Texans - 24
Oakland Raiders - 7

*Enjoy the game, Raiders fans, because JJ Watt and the stout Texans' defense are going to eat Derek Carr alive.


Kansas City Chiefs - 35
Indianapolis Colts - 33

*A high scoring affair as Luck and Alex Smith trade scoring drives. This one comes down to a 4th down stand. The Chiefs' defense has that lock down mentality to keep Luck from getting into the endzone when it counts.


DIVISIONAL ROUND

Green Bay Packers - 30
Arizona Cardinals - 20

*Aaron Rodgers is in rare form when he carves up a strong defense like Arizona. A cold day in Lambeau ought to tip the scales in their favor.


Seattle Seahawks - 27
Carolina Panthers - 24

*A rematch of last year's explosive divisional round playoff game. But this season, Russell Wilson learns from his mistake and doesn't wait until the second half to start putting points up.


Pittsburgh Steelers - 42
Kansas City Chiefs - 21

*The Steelers put on a clinic as they're high flying offense trumps the defense of the Chiefs. Big Ben throws for 4 touchdowns, 3 to Antonio Brown


New England Patriots - 24
Houston Texans - 17

*There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the Patriots winning at home in the playoffs.


CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND:

Green Bay Packers - 31
Seattle Seahawks - 27

*Rapidly becoming one of the best rivalries in football, the Seahawks and Packers play a rematch of the 2014 NFC Championship game. Two big differences between then and now, however: the game will be played at Lambeau Field, and Aaron Rodgers won't be playing on a strained Achilles. That's enough of an edge to give the Packers the NFC crown.


Pittsburgh Steelers - 35
New England Patriots - 28

*The big reason Pittsburgh gets the edge is because they're forcing the Pats to play on the road. Pittsburgh protects Heinz Field well. In a grudge match with an old rival, the Steelers will need any advantage they can get. The Pats keep pace with the Steelers, and ultimately it comes down to the final drive of the game. It's Big Ben with a methodical drive to put 7 on the board while leaving no time on the clock for any Tom Brady magic.


SUPER BOWL 51:

Green Bay Packers - 27
Pittsburgh Steelers - 34

A rematch of Super Bowl 45, this will cement the Hall of Fame career for Ben Roethlisberger. His third Vince Lombardi trophy puts him in esteemed company. Rodgers performs admirably, but comes up just short.


Super Bowl MVP: Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh



Regardless of how idiotic (or prophetic) these predictions may seem by season's end, it's just great knowing football season has finally returned.

(Sources:
Stats: Pro Football Reference
Pictures: Sports Logos website, Bleacher Report)